The Brexit Farce: 10 days to "Mayhem Brexit"

The Brexit Farce is entering the final countdown to "Mayhem Brexit" at 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020.

"Mayhem Brexit" is the term I use to refer to the legally chaotic situation that will arise on 31st January 2020 if Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen persist in their false position that the United Kingdom may lawfully leave the European Union on 31st January 2020.

Why do I claim that at 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020 there will be legal chaos and uncertainty?

Legal chaos and uncertainty will occur due to the seemingly conflicting effects of international treaties:

• The treaties establishing the European Union - the Treaty on European Union and the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union
• The European Economic Area Agreement

The supposed effect of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), in particular Article 50 TEU, is widely assumed to be understood.

The European Council, acting at 27, and the United Kingdom have agreed that the United Kingdom may leave the European Union at 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020 (00.00 Brussels Time on 1st February 2020).

In reaching their agreement, the European Council and the UK failed to take into account the legal effect in Public International Law and European Union Law of the European Economic Area Agreement (EEA Agreement).

The UK has legal obligations arising from the EEA Agreement that can only be fulfilled while the UK is a Member State of the European Union.

To bring to an end its legal obligations under the EEA Agreement, the UK must give "at least twelve months" notice, under Article 127 of the EEA Agreement (EEAA).

The UK has not given such Article 127 EEAA notice so the UK is legally obliged to fulfil its EEAA obligations until (as of today's date) at least 21st January 2021.

In other words, the United Kingdom cannot lawfully leave the European Union until at least (as of today's date) 21st January 2021.

As a matter of urgency Boris Johnson and Ursula von der Leyen need to get their legal ducks in a row.

If they fail to do that and "Mayhem Brexit" occurs at 23.00 GMT on 31st January 2020 the United Kingdom and the European Union will enter an era of legal uncertainty and chaos which, as far as I know, has no precedent.

As an interim step the UK should immediately ask that an emergency meeting of the European Council is convened to consider a request from the United Kingdom that the Article 50 TEU negotiation period is extended until 31st January 2021.